you mean like the currency losing 10% of it's value, and staying there? that kind of implosion? article 50 hasn't even been invoked yet.
House sales have fallen by 60% in some areas, advertised jobs halved, the bank of England has been forced to heavily play it's hand, investment has slowed, Ford has announced it will end UK production, the buyer for our steel industry pulled out etc, etc, etc.
Perusing the news about the current post-Brexit situation. Here's what pops up. http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/727620/UK-manufacturing-exports-soar-Brexit-economy-boost-weak-pound http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/31/business-confidence-hits-post-referendum-highs-as-uk-economy-hol/ http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/10/27/world/europe/ap-eu-britain-economy.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/upshot/britains-economy-was-resilient-after-brexit-its-leaders-learned-the-wrong-lesson.html https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/27/uk-economy-defies-brexit-slowdown-fears https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/21/post-referendum-gloom-fears-confounded-economic-evidence
Spoiler { mod: spoiler tags for profanity } How about some facts and not just opinion pieces. https://fullfact.org/economy/brexit-and-price-rises/ ''£1 bought around $1.48 in global markets on 23 June, the date of the referendum. Today it’s about $1.22. That’s a drop of around 18% since the day of the vote. The fall is down to the expectations of investors, who believe that the UK’s economy won’t grow as quickly in future. Their reaction has been to convert their money into other currencies so that it can be invested elsewhere—and when there’s less demand for a currency, its value drops. This makes imports more expensive. It makes money sent abroad less valuable once exchanged into the local currency. And it raises the cost of a holiday in another country. Exchange rate movements, rather than any underlying rise in the prices of foreign goods and service, explain lots of post-referendum price rises. As we wrote in collaboration with the Telegraph before the referendum, this was both expected and reversible. Sterling could recover, undoing the recent effect on prices, although economists generally think it won’t. It’s not bad news for everyone. British goods and services will be cheaper for foreign buyers, which helps companies sell more abroad. But the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies describes as “nonsense” the idea that a weaker pound will, overall, make British people better off. https://fullfact.org/economy/leaks-hard-brexit-66-billion/ “Cabinet ministers are being warned that the Treasury could lose up to £66 billion a year in tax revenues under a “hard Brexit”, according to leaked government papers.” - These figures aren’t new. £66 billion is the top end of an estimate the Treasury published in April.
It amazing how many of those 'things aren't as bad as feared' stories often forget to mention that Brexit hasn't actually happened yet. We're already having to bribe companies to not move their business overseas (see: Nissan in Sunderland). That massive drop in the pound is just a reaction to the possibilities that are facing us. It could drop further still. The only saving grace is that when the proverbial hits the fan, it will be the core Brexit voters who will be hit the hardest. Feeding your family of five on universal credit is going to be a tough ask when a gallon of petrol costs £10 and a loaf of bread costs £2.10. But it's OK - all that sovereignty you demanded will keep you sated.
I agree with boris - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...vealed-expressing-doubts-brexit-a7363781.html
Cloudz - How has your experience of pre-brexit been so far? Has the pound dropping in value vs the Euro effected your manufacturing business? Do you think we will still have free movement of goods and services? How does your wife feel about her experiences? Will she have to apply for indefinite leave to remain?
Articles that point out that the economy is holding firm with supporting figures are “opinion pieces” while “things are still ok because the Adalia bipunctata hasn’t hit the fan yet” is fact? That’s an interesting claim. Interestingly enough, the main claim has shifted from “uncertainty is going to make the economy collapse” to “we’re ok for now because we’re still in the EU”. If you care to remember, the entire base for the gloom-and-doom argument was that “uncertainty” that Brexit was creating. The fact that article 50 has not yet been invoked does not make the future any less uncertain, I reckon. Quite the contrary. The economy should already be in the red in many ways. Yet it is doing fine other than, yes I know, the drop of value of the pound. I’m waiting for article 50 to be invoked to see what actually happens then.
Actually I was referring to the independently fact checked and referenced articles, which you've not mentioned because it doesn't fit into your preconceived biases. The picture was just to provide context. The entire country is worth One fifth less (20%) less then it was pre-referendum, That is a major major issue. The Goverment is having to bribe companies to stay, That is also a issue. https://www.theguardian.com/politic...al-could-lead-to-colossal-bills-for-taxpayers
Using 23rd June values as a reference point soon grossly misleading. Have a look at the charts for the preceding 4 weeks. There's what appears to be an artificial massive spike just before the result is announced. That is to say, the peak price just before the result was out of the ordinary, and significantly higher than it had been leading up to the result.
It's not fine if you run a business with significant import costs. I train with a guy who works in a company that imports electronic components from the continent. The drop in sterling has already cost the employees at the company their Christmas bonus and will probably lead to redundancies in the new year. I'm sure that company isn't alone in its struggles.
The five year charts are better to look at. Over that time frame you see an upwards move from the long term $1.55 or so average to a much higher peak, followed by a fall to the norm. Then the referendum was announced and the pound fell, then the polls started showing the unlikelihood of a Leave vote and the pound rose again. When the result came out, almost overnight GBP took a huge hit. With single-issue charts like this, it's normally very hard to pin down just one cause, but it's really clear that the pound was utterly hammered by the decision to leave because participants in markets all around the world saw the decision as extremely foolish from an economic standpoint.
How about this yearly trend then - http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/cha...d1=20150101&d2=20161231&type=area&h=300&w=600 and a five year trend - http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/emb...d1=20110101&d2=20161231&type=area&h=300&w=600 The pound has dropped a massive amount, you cannot spin this as a good thing. Source: http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/emb...d1=20150101&d2=20161231&type=area&h=300&w=600 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/currency
The value of the pound did spike pre referendum, But it had been higher then that spike in the preceeding year, and the spike was from the expectation that we would stay in the EU, So to call it artificial isnt really factually correct. The rise wasn't out of line with the value in the preceeding year, (it was actually higher then that spike in jul 2015 to jan 2016) and the rise was due to financial expectation, when that expectation was dashed, it dropped. source: http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/cha...d1=20150101&d2=20161231&type=area&h=300&w=600
The Express ran a story saying Britain was booming post Brexit when the figures in the article showed the second worst third quarter growth since we recovered from the banking crisis and a large reduction on projected growth levels. I don't think they understand what booming means?
Hi, The firms in Romania that we sub contract the manufacturing process are being hit by the exchange rate. That puts pressure on us to pay them a bit more. We have also had some higher fabric costs when we import directly; paying in dollars. Some of our suppliers will also be passing over cost increases in the same vein. So yes, we can see inflationary pressures due to the currency situation arising. Off setting that; At least one of our major customers is based in Ireland so for them it's favourable situation with the exchange rate. But on balance, it's probably been more to the side of negative for us so far. The uncertainty over the free trade agreement doesn't help at all, and I think that's very much up in the air still. It really depends how far the will runs in the EU to dig in and have us out. I think our position is marginally stronger, but it's a hard call as the EU stance is to me more of an emotional pride based one rather than a practical and reasonable one. But perhaps that's to be expected. It doesn't follow that other EU member will want to run off and "do a Brexit", but that's obviously a driver in the perception of politicians and the public to take a tough stance. On balance I do think we will keep free movement (of goods), but of course it will cost us. I'm just banking on people keeping their heads and the EU avoiding cutting off its nose to spite its face. Lets just hope it doesn't turn ugly. My wife's fine, thanks for asking; she convinced me to vote remain in the end and to choose my head over my heart. I'll admit I found the choice very tough. Maybe I am not well enough informed, but given when she arrived here and that we are married I can't see any action is needed regarding her residence here, but that might change once we know more about Britain's exit. Her experience has been pretty normal I think, nothing out of the ordinary. Oh, other than my brother in law asking her after the vote "So what are you going to do now?".. To be fair she was a little shocked and surprised at the result as well as disappointed, but that I think applies to many folks.
The preconceived bias claim is interesting when I literally just said I'll wait to see what actually happens. And from the camp who is announcing pandemonium before it's happened, at that. Sounds like a lot of federal EU pipedream butthurt from people who would rather actually have pandemonium to be proved rightm rather than acknowledge the resilience that the UK's economy has shown so far. I do know what you are referring to. I addressed it when I mentioned the drop of the pound. Sovereignty was always going to have a price. A EU country can no longer choose a vision for its future outside of it without significant repercussions. You can thank the soviet-like national-gobbling machine the EU is for that.
