UFC 104 predictions/discussion

Spoiler

i am of the opinion that machida fought in a very non-smart way, and did not take a lot of opportunities he could have taken.

either that or he knew the fight was fixed and was just trying to not get wtfpwned by rua before the decision win, and got hit more than he expected to.

 

Spoilers

OK, I was being nice, the the policy is to use spoiler tags until 24 hours after the event. Any post containing spoilers before that period will be deleted, as is MAP policy; I've just been feeling nice today.

 

you are right mitlov i was just throwing that out there because there are Machida fans out there who think he should still be champ. but i also agree with the whole two TMAist doing there thing for their respective arts and +1 with the whole ryu hyabusa v sagat but if its street fighter it would have to be Ryu v sagat and if it is dead or alive it would be ryu hyabusa v Zack (the muay thai character from DOA) Just throwing some fun Video game junk at ya but i tottaly agree nonetheless lol

 

There is more to Rua than meets the eye. He has a Capoeira background lurking back there as well. In his early Pride matches he throws some jumping combos and such. Don't get me wrong. He is well versed in MMA, MT, and BJJ. He has a good takedown as well. But one of the things that was so exciting about him is he'd whip out some jump spinny kick out of nowhere back in Pride.

 

Spoiler

Not denying that, but we didn't see anything like that at UFC 104. He was very much orthodox Muay Thai except for one or two single-leg takedown attempts.

 

Compustrike vs. Fight Metric

Just some interesting stats from the two main stat-providers for MMA. They didn't have exactly the same numbers, likely owing to the human factor as well as poor camera angles, etc. Also, they run their stats a bit differently. Fightmetric just scores what part of the body was struck, while Computstrike shows the number of punches, kicks, etc. that landed. Anyway...

Total:
Compustrike (CS):
Machida landed 50/105 strikes, or 48%, Rua landed 89/155 strikes, or 57%
Rua was 0/3 for takedown attempts
Fightmetric (FM):
Machida landed 42 strikes; Rua landed 82 strikes
Rua was 0/4 for takedown attempts

R1
CS:
Machida: 10 strikes
Rua: 17 strikes, 1 TD attempt
FM:
Machida: 11 strikes
Rua: 19 strikes, 1 TD attempt

R2:
CS:
Machida: 11 strikes
Rua: 23 strikes, 1 TD attempt
FM:
Machida: 7 strikes
Rua: 21 strikes, 1 TD attempt

R3:
CS:
Machida: 15 strikes
Rua: 19 strikes
FM:
Machida: 15 strikes
Rua: 19 strikes, 1 TD attempt

R4:
CS:
Machida: 7 strikes
Rua: 13 strikes, 1 TD attempt
FM:
Machida: 3 strikes
Rua: 10 strikes, 1 TD attempt

R5:
CS:
Machida: 7 strikes
Rua: 13 strikes
FM:
Machida: 6 strikes
Rua: 13 strikes.

I'd like to note that, as a counter-argument to the idea that Machida was trying to finish rather than just batter the legs and body, according to Fightmetric, Machida only landed more head shots in rounds 2 and 3 (2/10:1/7 and 9/22:6/18, respectively). That, and the fact that leg and body kicks have, indeed, ended fights before.

I'm looking forward to the rematch. I expect Machida to have a better game plan, and for Shogun to be more aggressive.

Edit: sources-

http://compustrike.com/stats_files/ufc_104/MacHida-Rua.HTM

http://www.fightmetric.com/fights/Machida-Shogun.html

 

SHOGUN GOT ROBBED.

I want those judges skinned alive then have salt poured onto them.

 

Only just got round to watching the fight yesterday.

I've truly never seen such a bad decision. Shogun won that hands down. It's got to be a fix...how otherwise could all 3 judges have scored the same? Ther's no way that could be justified. Arguably Machida won one round at best, but I wouldn't even have given him that.

It was great watching Shogun use such classic MT techniques...not often seen in the Octagon. In particular his stance and his masterly use of low and inside leg kicks, as well as to the body. Congratulations Shogun...you got the belt in all but name!