And why are humans so bad at evaluating statistical relative risk..... After recent threads.... I was thinking about what the actual real risks to life are. From memory, (I will look for the actual stats if anyone wants them) the leading causes of death in developed nations in men: Under 30ish suicide: (I believe America is leading this due to the easy access to guns, and limited access to mental healthcare) Over 40ish cardiovascular disease. (again I belive America is leading this due to their diet, lack of exercise, and limited access to healthcare) So instead of worrying about knife wielding home invasians, etc Why not A) lock your doors (less glamorous then having an EDC shotgun on the coffee table I know) B) open up and talk about your feelings occasionally. C) take regular cardiovascular exercise = less heart attacks etc D) watch what you eat, E) to improve longevity lift weights a bit. Not as cool as killing snakes in a thunderstorm, but ya know, far more effective.
People have a tendency to focus on possibilities of sudden death, especially via elements they can't control, than to look at the slow killers like not sleeping enough over the course of decades, eating unhealthily for decades, driving multiple hours a week for decades (I count this one as people feel more in control of the situation when they are driving, vs say, flying, where you are much less likely to be injured/die, but people seem to obsess a lot more over flight safety than driving safety), smoking, doing drugs, getting sunburned all the time, etc. Instead they focus on terrorist attacks, home invasions, etc. EDIT: To summarize: Kills slow? No obsession over it generally, whether or not you have control over it. (Well, not strictly true; some people obsess over carcinogens in their food or environment, etc.) Kills fast? No obsession if you have control over it (driving), lots of obsession about ways to get more control if you don't have control over it (terrorist attacks, home invasions). People don't seem to care much about the likelyhood of the thing happening either, in terms of whether to obsess over it.
Trying to control things you have no control over vs controlling things you do have control over seems sub optimal...
Yes, unfortunately its how our brains seem to work. I can think of plenty of people who drive like maniacs (or eat a really unhealthy diet, etc etc), yet spend all their worrying on "what if someone attacks me while I'm out and about".
My guess? Statistics don't mean a lot to an individual. The stats may say one thing, but that doesn't mean it will apply to anyone in particular. Anywhere you find something that depends on a 1d20 roll, people will let it ride.
Actually, the UK is leading in suicides from 5-50. In the US, the leading cause under 30 is unintentional injury, by a wide margin compared to the UK government data. This would be within the last 3 years for both regions.
Good point, Here's a link for everyone else FastStats " Heart disease: 635,260 Cancer: 598,038 Accidents (unintentional injuries): 161,374 Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 154,596 Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 142,142 Alzheimer’s disease: 116,103 Diabetes: 80,058 Influenza and pneumonia: 51,537 Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,046 Intentional self-harm (suicide): 44,965 " The states seem to have a lower rate of suicide then the UK. I wonder is that actually true, or are you less likily to rule a suicide a suicide in the states due to its reporting system? If true, why are Americans so lethaly clumsy?
Suicide in the United States - Wikipedia "Due to the stigma surrounding suicide, it is suspected that suicide generally is underreported.[8] In April 2016, the CDC released data showing that the suicide rate in the United States had hit a 30-year high,[9][10]and later in June 2018, released further data showing that the rate has continued to increase and has increased in every U.S. state except Nevada since 1999" " A firearm is used in almost 50% of all suicides. The rate of suicide is highest in middle age—white men in particular. " And for accidents FastStats All unintentional injury deaths Number of deaths: 161,374 Deaths per 100,000 population: 49.9 Cause of death rank: 3 Unintentional fall deaths Number of deaths: 34,673 Deaths per 100,000 population: 10.7 Motor vehicle traffic deaths Number of deaths: 40,327 Deaths per 100,000 population: 12.5 Unintentional poisoning deaths Number of deaths: 58,335 Deaths per 100,000 population: 18.1
GHO | World Health Statistics data visualizations dashboard | Data tables - Country data United States suicide rate 23.6 UK suicide rate 13.5 So whilst more Americans die by suicide, they also die from other things at a far greater rate, hence its not a leading cause of death. So if you want to live a long life, don't be American!
So dont be the majority of Americans! When people used to talk about "Trickle down theory" they didn't make clear what was trickling down.
I dunno. This is hard to control. There are some people who has never had to dial 999/911 etc their entire life. Then you got those on the other side of the spectrum. And the variables are too many to list. Within SD we are always discussing situational awareness. Which basically means evaluating a risk of everything you do. Which is anything from basic common sense (lock your doors when you go out) having a detailed and strategised plan to effectively and safely go to the shops and top up your groceries and whatever is on the topshelf. At the moment in London, the most popular crime is moped riding idiots snatching peoples phones whilst out in the street. Now I know this is going on, I know which areas are prone to it more (just look online). Yet, I still walk out with my headphones on, and yes my phone is in my hand a lot of the times. I know I further my risk of not hearing a warning signal, cos I got JoRo asking people if theyve done drugs. And I know I lose focus of my surrounding areas when I get my usual constant flow of whatsapp messages/memes. And since I'm aware of this, I always walk with my phone out but only in a crowded area and Im deep within the pavement. I have a quick glance about my immediate area before I switch on the phone and even then its a quick glance. And before I go into a secured room, I have a quick look behind me. But... I do all that instinctively, I dont actively know I do it. But also to me, thats just common sense.
Basically this entire thing made me think of hard martial arts training and these Training martial arts is awesome, but A - E shoujld be taken into account, and followed as well
It's actually not true that America is leading in suicide. Our suicide rate is similar to many European counties, from Hungary to Belgium. List of countries by suicide rate - Wikipedia As for hard numbers, 30,000 Americans die each year because of guns (mostly self inflicted), but 90,000 Americans die each year because of alcohol, and 610,000 Americans die each year from heart disease. Many Europeans don't trust me to be responsible with the contents of my gun safes, but do trust me to be responsible with the contents of my liquor cabinet. You bring up risk of suicide, but statistical relative risk says that my shotgun and revolver are less of a risk to me than my scotch and tequila, which are less of a risk than whether I maintain adequate cardio.
Walking around with headphones and no music, baiting them with you phone out, waiting patiently, for the right time to nail a kata garuma, or seonage on an unsuspecting moped thief
Correction sorry: suicide is the second leading death in the under 15 to 24, and I meant the USA is leading the UK, sorry my original post isn't very clear. Suicide in the United States - Wikipedia "additionally, it was the second leading cause of death for young people aged 15 to 24 and the third leading cause of death for those between the ages of 10 and 14" Relative risk is indeed correct, so why the over focus on guns and street fights? live safely, wear a seat belt, do your cardio, keep your dangerous things locked away from kids, (alcohol, guns, swimming pools, knives etc) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-shooting-people-on-a-weekly-basis-this-year/ Lithuania and Finland are the only European couries with a worse rate overall according to the WHO list. What stats are you using for the risk of alcohol vs the risk of gun ownership? Not all people own guns, not everyone drinks. It's the rate that's important, not the gross figure.
